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Monday, 27 April 2015
"Brexit" could cost London more than €300 billion
A new Bertelsmann Stiftung study pointed out leaving the EU could be really expensive, especially for the United Kingdom
by Emanuele Bonini
A farewell to the European Union could cost United Kingdom more than 300 billion Euro, according to a report released today in Brussels. Assuming the UK could leave the EU in 2018, in the year 2030 – 12 years after a possible "Brexit" (UK exit from the EU) – the negative effects will have shown their full impact, as suggested by a current Bertelsmann Stiftung study in collaboration with the Ifo Institute in Munich. It is the first study that examines the consequences of a UK exit from the EU not only for the United Kingdom, but for all the other EU countries as well. If trade economic as well as dynamic economic consequences are taken into account together, the GDP losses in the unfavourable scenario could reach 14%. It means these losses in 2014 values would correspond to a GDP reduction of around €313 billion for the entire national economy, or lower by around €4.850 per capita. Possible savings such as the cancelling of EU budget payments that currently total around 0,5% of the British GDP could not compensate for economic losses, even in the best case scenario.
Going more into details, leaving the EU would increase the costs of trade between the UK and EU and reduce trade activities. The severity of the impact will differ for individual British industries. For financial services, anticipated losses in added value reach around 5% in the unfavourable scenario. The chemicals, mechanical engineering and automotive industries will also see steep losses in added value because they are heavily incorporated in European value chains. The chemicals industry will face the greatest drop (nearly 11%).
A farewell to the European Union could cost United Kingdom more than 300 billion Euro, according to a report released today in Brussels. Assuming the UK could leave the EU in 2018, in the year 2030 – 12 years after a possible "Brexit" (UK exit from the EU) – the negative effects will have shown their full impact, as suggested by a current Bertelsmann Stiftung study in collaboration with the Ifo Institute in Munich. It is the first study that examines the consequences of a UK exit from the EU not only for the United Kingdom, but for all the other EU countries as well. If trade economic as well as dynamic economic consequences are taken into account together, the GDP losses in the unfavourable scenario could reach 14%. It means these losses in 2014 values would correspond to a GDP reduction of around €313 billion for the entire national economy, or lower by around €4.850 per capita. Possible savings such as the cancelling of EU budget payments that currently total around 0,5% of the British GDP could not compensate for economic losses, even in the best case scenario.
Going more into details, leaving the EU would increase the costs of trade between the UK and EU and reduce trade activities. The severity of the impact will differ for individual British industries. For financial services, anticipated losses in added value reach around 5% in the unfavourable scenario. The chemicals, mechanical engineering and automotive industries will also see steep losses in added value because they are heavily incorporated in European value chains. The chemicals industry will face the greatest drop (nearly 11%).
Sunday, 26 April 2015
bLOGBOOK - The Laughing Stock, n°2 year III
They asked me to write. It's long time you don't send us one of your e-mail, they told me. In somehow I was called for sending update, basically. What I do, what I meet, what I plan and so on. All this sounds weird completely. First of all I've never had a lot to talk about and, secondly, It's really out of ordinary life asking for e-mail in social media time. A lot of people simply don't like be in a mailing list, others simply don't like spending time in reading texts in English, others don't want to use e-mail channel any more for communication. Digital evolution, laziness, research for face-to-face mailing exchange: whatever the reason could be, my collective messages are generally ignored. Officially there are readers, although answers never come. Despite all that there still someone who asks for my mail. I love my friends because of their humour, and I guess some of them love make irony and kidding me any time they can. Anyway, here I am. Honestly right now I have nothing really interesting to write about. Still waiting for something hoping it could soon happen: that's the mood I live in. Of course I'm trying to find what I could define "an exit strategy", but that time has not come yet. Hopefully future will reserve surprises, but at the moment I prefer to see how the events will develop before giving further details on my business. With regard to my health affairs, three stitches will restrict my movements until the first week of May. I will not enter into detail, but I would never recommend no one travelling with stitches in the back. In such conditions dealing with baggages becomes impossible, as well as a lot of small daily activities. No way, I have to keep calm and carry on, and so I will.
Friday, 17 April 2015
EU Parliament to reconsider the Juncker's plan?
The European Commission strategy for investment received negative opinion from the Transport committee, while the Industry committee asked to mainly finance the green economy
by Emanuele Bonini
Whatever the plenary session of the European Parliament will decide, Jean-Claude Juncker's investment plan raised concerns among the MEPs, who voted against the proposal made by the president of the European Commission. The original idea was creating a special European fund for the strategic investments (EFSI) with 21 billion Euro in guarantees. Five billions are supposed to come from the European Investment Bank (EIB), the other sixteen billion will come from the European Commission. Part of the European Commission guarantees should come from the Connecting Europe Facility programme (CEF, 3,3 billion €) and Horizon 2020 (2,7 billion €). A proposal rejected by the Transport committee of the European Parliament, where 43 MEPs to 3 affirmed the reallocation of 3,3 billion Euro from CEF should be deleted. «CEF should not be sacrificed», said Dominique Riquet, co-rapporteur of the opinion voted on Tuesday. «The Commission keeps telling us these are additional funds but the EFSI proposal rather looks like a substitution. MEPs want a real addition of investment: the Juncker Plan + Horizon 2020 + the Connecting Europe Facility. Not the cherry without the cake».
While the Transport committee voted against one of the mail pillar of Juncker's investment plan, the Industry and energy committee adopted a cross-party amendment to earmark €5 billion of the EFSI for energy efficiency measures. «The top priority of this fund should be to create a green energy union, based on energy efficiency and renewable energy», according to the Green energy spokesperson, Claude Turmes. So, what was thought to unite Europe finished to divide the EU institutions, and from Juncker's different voices are rising. Maybe at the end nothing will happen as these opinions are not binding, and the plenary session of the European Parliament will give the final position on this sensitive file. Any way, the political fact is the European Parliament is reconsidering the plan by which Europe should return to grow. Not a good message indeed.
Whatever the plenary session of the European Parliament will decide, Jean-Claude Juncker's investment plan raised concerns among the MEPs, who voted against the proposal made by the president of the European Commission. The original idea was creating a special European fund for the strategic investments (EFSI) with 21 billion Euro in guarantees. Five billions are supposed to come from the European Investment Bank (EIB), the other sixteen billion will come from the European Commission. Part of the European Commission guarantees should come from the Connecting Europe Facility programme (CEF, 3,3 billion €) and Horizon 2020 (2,7 billion €). A proposal rejected by the Transport committee of the European Parliament, where 43 MEPs to 3 affirmed the reallocation of 3,3 billion Euro from CEF should be deleted. «CEF should not be sacrificed», said Dominique Riquet, co-rapporteur of the opinion voted on Tuesday. «The Commission keeps telling us these are additional funds but the EFSI proposal rather looks like a substitution. MEPs want a real addition of investment: the Juncker Plan + Horizon 2020 + the Connecting Europe Facility. Not the cherry without the cake».
While the Transport committee voted against one of the mail pillar of Juncker's investment plan, the Industry and energy committee adopted a cross-party amendment to earmark €5 billion of the EFSI for energy efficiency measures. «The top priority of this fund should be to create a green energy union, based on energy efficiency and renewable energy», according to the Green energy spokesperson, Claude Turmes. So, what was thought to unite Europe finished to divide the EU institutions, and from Juncker's different voices are rising. Maybe at the end nothing will happen as these opinions are not binding, and the plenary session of the European Parliament will give the final position on this sensitive file. Any way, the political fact is the European Parliament is reconsidering the plan by which Europe should return to grow. Not a good message indeed.
Senselessland (chapter 9)
Impressions and images from Belpaese
Italy is a very crazy country getting more and more crazy. There people have the habit to work for free, and basically because of the general national uncritical acceptance. Italians apparently don't care about their dignity, even if they are famous for their egoism. Reality is everybody is out his mind in Italy, as I could verify by myself. Few days ago I received an e-mail from a person totally unknown. This person - who will be named "John Smith" in order to protect both privacy and identity - was just asking for an internship. John Smith didn't send any CV, he only said to be interested in communication and journalism. Then, he wrote this following sentence:
«My goal is not to get a remuneration but an educational experience that can allow me to use the skills acquired over the last few years»
Here we are, in a country of desperate people ready to work for free. I had a mail exchange with John Smith, and he stressed his strategy is «collect many free internships» in order to can have good professional skills when he will decide to look for «a real job». So, mister John Smith from Italy is not only desperate but totally stupid as well. In saying he's in search for «an educational experience that can allow to use the skills acquired over the last few years», John Smith admits to be already skilful. In the labour market skills have to paid. In case of people with no any experience the situation is different, they can't offer nothing but their workforce. On the contrary, people who already have some experience can't be considered trainees at all. First of all it is a question of self-respect. Denying all «the skills acquired over the last few years» means to cause a damage to the own image and above all to the own dignity.
«My goal is not to get a remuneration but an educational experience that can allow me to use the skills acquired over the last few years»
Here we are, in a country of desperate people ready to work for free. I had a mail exchange with John Smith, and he stressed his strategy is «collect many free internships» in order to can have good professional skills when he will decide to look for «a real job». So, mister John Smith from Italy is not only desperate but totally stupid as well. In saying he's in search for «an educational experience that can allow to use the skills acquired over the last few years», John Smith admits to be already skilful. In the labour market skills have to paid. In case of people with no any experience the situation is different, they can't offer nothing but their workforce. On the contrary, people who already have some experience can't be considered trainees at all. First of all it is a question of self-respect. Denying all «the skills acquired over the last few years» means to cause a damage to the own image and above all to the own dignity.
Thursday, 9 April 2015
Pressmen, chapter 5
Pressmen are forever. For common people this could sound as a damn, and in fact it is. Journalists will never say because they could never realize, but once a man become a pressman he is marked for ever. First of all, once the official exam is passed and the man is registered on the professional register, there he'll remain until the dead. Even when the pressman reaches retirement the journalist remain a journalist. It doesn't count whether you work or not: if you are journalist you are a journalist and that's that. That's death, maybe, since any person stops to be a normal human being once on the professional register, but this is another story. Since a pressman remains always a pressman, he will be hired even if in retirement. That's the press, baby, the press. And there's nothing you can do about it. Nothing.
So, let's take a retired pressman with a long career behind him and a younger pressman with less experience. In modern times newspapers prefer the first category, made by people already trained, with higher professional skills, more sources and a better network. As a result, elder pressmen will get a second life of work. Even if retired they will continue to work, getting both the retirement allowance and the salary. Since they already get the retirement allowance, employers will hired again at same condition but lower wage. They are simply more competitive than younger colleagues, who will be discriminated. Somebody could argue such a practice is unfair. Come on! This is just a demonstration that a pressman is forever.
Tuesday, 7 April 2015
«Tortures at the G8 summit in Genoa»
No doubt to The European Court of Human Rights: in 2001 there has been a «violation» of Article 3 of the Convention for human rights
by Emiliano Biaggio
In Italy tortures were perpetrated by policemen at Diaz school in Genoa, according to the European Court of Human Rights. In a recent judgement on the G8 summit held in 2001 the Court found that there had been a violation of the European Convention on Human Rights on account of acts of torture sustained by the applicant and of the Italian criminal legislation, which was «inadequate for the punishment of such acts and not an effective deterrent against their repetition». The decision by the Court based in Strasbourg was taken at unanimity. All the members agreed in Italy «there has been a violation of Article 3 of the Convention in its substantive aspect». The article states «no one shall be subjected to torture or to inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment», but it was not the case for Arnaldo Cestaro, who was found victim of inhuman treatment by the Italian authorities. The Court considered that the applicant «suffered moral damages because of the violations». Therefore the Court, ruled «it is appropriate to grant the applicant 45.000€ in this respect».
In Italy tortures were perpetrated by policemen at Diaz school in Genoa, according to the European Court of Human Rights. In a recent judgement on the G8 summit held in 2001 the Court found that there had been a violation of the European Convention on Human Rights on account of acts of torture sustained by the applicant and of the Italian criminal legislation, which was «inadequate for the punishment of such acts and not an effective deterrent against their repetition». The decision by the Court based in Strasbourg was taken at unanimity. All the members agreed in Italy «there has been a violation of Article 3 of the Convention in its substantive aspect». The article states «no one shall be subjected to torture or to inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment», but it was not the case for Arnaldo Cestaro, who was found victim of inhuman treatment by the Italian authorities. The Court considered that the applicant «suffered moral damages because of the violations». Therefore the Court, ruled «it is appropriate to grant the applicant 45.000€ in this respect».
Monday, 6 April 2015
bLOGBOOK - Dinant
Dinant, land of music, history, and tradition. French village of Givet is twenty kilometres from here, the well known abbey of Cinay only fifteen: Dinant is on the Belgian beer route, and at the same time on the way to France. This city is crossroads, and for centuries peoples have met here. Holy Roman Empire, France, the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Germany: Dinant has been part of different countries, it has been theatre of war many and many times. The city finished also under the Austrian empire control, for a while. Here war is still a painful wound. Dinant is where Germany started to fight in Belgium during the first world war: immediately after the occupation of Luxembourg, German troops invaded the kingdom and after few days they arrived in Dinant. There the United Kingdom and France fought in defence of Belgium (neutral). German troops needed ten days to defeat enemies: the 24th of August 1914 Dinant was just a series of ruins. Germans burnt the city (nearly two thirds of the buildings existing at that time), killing 674 civilians in response of alleged killing of German soldiers by the citizens. Monuments, statues, plaques remembering that moment are in every part of the city, still deeply battle-scarred. Still today it is possible to find a plaque commemorating the place where Charles de Gaulle, at that time an infantry lieutenant, was wounded during the Battle of Dinant.
Friday, 3 April 2015
Deadly attack made one victim in Brussels
A 33 years old man killed in a Christian Church of the city centre. Still no information, the case will be made clear by Monday
by Emanuele Bonini
A man died today in Brussels after being assaulted by unknown. The attack took place in a church of the city centre, in the early afternoon. A 33 years old man has been killed for unknown reasons, and the police immediately opened an inquiry in order to establish the causes behind this murder. The victim has been immediately hidden to the crowd by a burial shroud, and a high Mass has been celebrated for the young man killed today. According to the preliminary information the man - whose identity remains secret - came from the Middle East, and the police is trying to understand whether the victim could have any role in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Apparently a man named Judas was interrogated immediately after the attack, but the prosecutor did not confirm.
The Belgian police does not exclude the possibility of a terrorist attack, according to officials. The man has been killed in a Christian Church and apparently he was a Christian as well. Thus the main suspect could be the ISIL, even if there are no elements to can clearly link the murder to the Islamic State and right now no one has still claimed the deadly attack. Fanaticism is still another possibility under examination. People in Brussels were shocked by the the execution and stood in favour of the victim of violence. A huge number of Belgians arrived from different part of the city to bring flowers, light candles up and dedicate prayers. No official declaration arrived from the Belgian authorities, who prefer keeping the utmost discretion. More clarity will be possible within the next 48-72 hours, according to official sources.
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| The victim covered by the burial shroud |
A man died today in Brussels after being assaulted by unknown. The attack took place in a church of the city centre, in the early afternoon. A 33 years old man has been killed for unknown reasons, and the police immediately opened an inquiry in order to establish the causes behind this murder. The victim has been immediately hidden to the crowd by a burial shroud, and a high Mass has been celebrated for the young man killed today. According to the preliminary information the man - whose identity remains secret - came from the Middle East, and the police is trying to understand whether the victim could have any role in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Apparently a man named Judas was interrogated immediately after the attack, but the prosecutor did not confirm.
The Belgian police does not exclude the possibility of a terrorist attack, according to officials. The man has been killed in a Christian Church and apparently he was a Christian as well. Thus the main suspect could be the ISIL, even if there are no elements to can clearly link the murder to the Islamic State and right now no one has still claimed the deadly attack. Fanaticism is still another possibility under examination. People in Brussels were shocked by the the execution and stood in favour of the victim of violence. A huge number of Belgians arrived from different part of the city to bring flowers, light candles up and dedicate prayers. No official declaration arrived from the Belgian authorities, who prefer keeping the utmost discretion. More clarity will be possible within the next 48-72 hours, according to official sources.
Thursday, 2 April 2015
Uber and his Hamletic doubt: transport or not?
The European Commission called to establish what the US company is about in order to put to an end the dispute risen in the EU
by Emanuele Bonini
Is Uber a service provider or a transport company? That is the question. The European Union still has not an answer and is working in order to find it out, living "the Uber affair" like an Hamletic drama. After formal complains from Germany, France and Spain, more directorates-general are studying the case. Competition, Internal market and Transport are the three main DG involved, but no steps forward have been made since the European Commission started to deal with the "Uber revolution". In June 2014 the EU said technological evolution is inevitable, and every body has to taking into account. We are referring to the old European Commission, although with a new college of commissioners situation didn't change. On the contrary, it turned from bad to worse since Uber denounced France, Germany and Spain for having blocked any activity on their ground. As a result a huge legal war is ongoing in Europe, with the European Commission called to be the judge of this dispute. The US company stated national governments in France, Germany and Spain have been acting since the beginning in order to safeguard the traditional monopoly represented by common taxi drivers. It can't be a surprise, since taxi drivers are obliged to get a licence in order work, and these licences - granted by public authorities - are not for free. Uber works with a completely different system: there are no licences, but people offering transfers from a part of the city to another one. Still, traditional taxi drivers are request to have car responding to specific safety standards, and is unclear whether the same standards exist for Uber. Anyway Uber is trying to play the card of the e-booking: the strategy is to convince that the US company is offering the same service of the rail or air ticket websites. People in Brussels are at work in order to lead the situation to an end, once and for all. And it still remain to understand whether Uber can affect the TTIP negotiations that Europe and the United Stated are carrying out.
Is Uber a service provider or a transport company? That is the question. The European Union still has not an answer and is working in order to find it out, living "the Uber affair" like an Hamletic drama. After formal complains from Germany, France and Spain, more directorates-general are studying the case. Competition, Internal market and Transport are the three main DG involved, but no steps forward have been made since the European Commission started to deal with the "Uber revolution". In June 2014 the EU said technological evolution is inevitable, and every body has to taking into account. We are referring to the old European Commission, although with a new college of commissioners situation didn't change. On the contrary, it turned from bad to worse since Uber denounced France, Germany and Spain for having blocked any activity on their ground. As a result a huge legal war is ongoing in Europe, with the European Commission called to be the judge of this dispute. The US company stated national governments in France, Germany and Spain have been acting since the beginning in order to safeguard the traditional monopoly represented by common taxi drivers. It can't be a surprise, since taxi drivers are obliged to get a licence in order work, and these licences - granted by public authorities - are not for free. Uber works with a completely different system: there are no licences, but people offering transfers from a part of the city to another one. Still, traditional taxi drivers are request to have car responding to specific safety standards, and is unclear whether the same standards exist for Uber. Anyway Uber is trying to play the card of the e-booking: the strategy is to convince that the US company is offering the same service of the rail or air ticket websites. People in Brussels are at work in order to lead the situation to an end, once and for all. And it still remain to understand whether Uber can affect the TTIP negotiations that Europe and the United Stated are carrying out.
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