During the next 20 years aircraft won't be able to invert their polluting trends. The increasing demand for flights makes a sustainable scenario «not realistic»
by Emanuele Bonini
There would be a lot to do, but there's nothing to do: a reduction of CO2 emission in civil aviation is simply impossible, according to a report from the European Commission published today. There are no scenarios showing a decrease of the greenhouse gas (GHG). On the contrary, all the indicators are expected rising up. The first "European Aviation Environmental Report" states that CO2 emissions have increased by about 80% between 1990 and 2014, and are forecast to «grow by a further 45% between 2014 and 2035». At the same time, NOX emissions - already doubled between 1990 and 2014 - are forecast to grow by a further 43% between 2014 and 2035. This basically shows that despite new technologies, «future improvements are not expected to be sufficient to prevent an overall growth in emissions during the next 20 years». The main cause of this irreversible trend is due to an increase of flight demand. Number of flights has increased by 80% between 1990 and 2014, and is forecast to grow by a further 45% between 2014 and 2035, with the total number of flights shifting from 8.85 million in 2014 to 12.8 million by 2035. Experts from the European Commission consider «not realistic» to imagine a GHG emission reduction in civil aviation sector. Thus the real challenge for civil aviation is nothing but a reduction of the growing amount of emissions. In other words, the real goal is just to minimize the environmental impact of aviation.
Already in 2010 the EU Member States agreed to work through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to achieve a global annual average fuel efficiency improvement of 2%, and to stabilise the global net carbon emissions of international aviation at 2020 levels. There's no way back! New technologies will only bring a reduction up to 10% of fuel, which means a reduction in GHG emissions. This effect will be counterbalanced by the increase of the air traffic. In the context of international efforts to limit climate change, the EU is committed to cutting its GHG emissions by at least 20% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, and by 40% in 2030. Apparently these goals will be not achieved through the civil aviation sector.
There would be a lot to do, but there's nothing to do: a reduction of CO2 emission in civil aviation is simply impossible, according to a report from the European Commission published today. There are no scenarios showing a decrease of the greenhouse gas (GHG). On the contrary, all the indicators are expected rising up. The first "European Aviation Environmental Report" states that CO2 emissions have increased by about 80% between 1990 and 2014, and are forecast to «grow by a further 45% between 2014 and 2035». At the same time, NOX emissions - already doubled between 1990 and 2014 - are forecast to grow by a further 43% between 2014 and 2035. This basically shows that despite new technologies, «future improvements are not expected to be sufficient to prevent an overall growth in emissions during the next 20 years». The main cause of this irreversible trend is due to an increase of flight demand. Number of flights has increased by 80% between 1990 and 2014, and is forecast to grow by a further 45% between 2014 and 2035, with the total number of flights shifting from 8.85 million in 2014 to 12.8 million by 2035. Experts from the European Commission consider «not realistic» to imagine a GHG emission reduction in civil aviation sector. Thus the real challenge for civil aviation is nothing but a reduction of the growing amount of emissions. In other words, the real goal is just to minimize the environmental impact of aviation.
Already in 2010 the EU Member States agreed to work through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to achieve a global annual average fuel efficiency improvement of 2%, and to stabilise the global net carbon emissions of international aviation at 2020 levels. There's no way back! New technologies will only bring a reduction up to 10% of fuel, which means a reduction in GHG emissions. This effect will be counterbalanced by the increase of the air traffic. In the context of international efforts to limit climate change, the EU is committed to cutting its GHG emissions by at least 20% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, and by 40% in 2030. Apparently these goals will be not achieved through the civil aviation sector.
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