After general elections, the country is offering EU a rotating presidency with no pro-European attitude. Alternatives are no functioning governments or political crisis during the semester
by Emanuele Bonini
After Belgium will be the turn for Slovakia? Many people in Europe are looking at the eastern republic after the general elections that gave an unpredictable future not only to the country. Since the next rotating presidency of Council of the EU will be Slovak, what is going to happen in the country will hit the European agenda and Europe as a whole. The centre-left Social Democracy SMER, party of the outgoing Slovak prime minister Robert Fico, will be probably not in the position of forming a government due to a lack of clear majority in the Parliament and the rise of right-wing parties. SMER remained the first party in the country, but it could be not enough to rule the country itself. There is the risk of a national political impasse, which could affect the political activity at European level, where strong commitment and great coordination are required (and hoped, considering the hot dossier on the table) together with a pro-European spirit. This is something Slovakia will be never able to offer. Fico himself, a socialist, announced to appeal the European Court of Justice against the decision of a binding relocation mechanism of migrants, refusing any idea of quotas imposed by Brussels. Fico's next partners won't be more light in their political position, since the SMER leader could share the government with euroskeptics.
Fico has already ruled out the possibility of searching political deal with the far-right People's Party – Our Slovakia. This a nationalist, anti-immigration and euroskeptic movement able to get 8% of votes and a total of 14 seats in the Parliament, where the minimum majority is 76 seat. Fico only has 49, and nobody can grant the 26 missing seats. Freedom and Solidarity (SAS), the second biggest party in Slovak after latest election, got 21 seats. Fico is forced to negotiate with them, less pro-European than SMER. In Brussels and Strasbourg live in the family of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the centre-right political group led by British Tories. So, we talk about another real euroskeptic party. But this alliance between SMER and SAS is seen as a possible scenario. The coalition government would be completed by the centre-right Ordinary People Party, sitting in Europe with ECR group. A broad, multi-party coalition of this nature is an alternative even if seen as fragile, with doubts over its ability to secure the parliament’s confidence vote
Any way current prime minister Robert Fico will have no a easy life in trying forming a new government, given that most centre-right parties have rejected a potential coalition with SMER. First attempts to get a majority will be for Fico. Then, in case of failure, will be the turn of SAS leader Richard Sulík. That would mean wasting time. There those who believe that considering Slovakia government formation process, the possibility of a caretaker government with limited decision-making ability, lasting into the rotating presidency of the EU, is gaining prominence. The point is there nothing for granted yet. It could be possible a Slovakia with no government as it was for Belgium in 2010, or a government with the rotating presidency with political turmoil. Again, Europe could have for the first time in history, an anti-European rotating presidency, in case far-right party will form a government. Then, migration agenda and EU integrity will be at stake.
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| National Council seats allocation after Slovakia elections |
After Belgium will be the turn for Slovakia? Many people in Europe are looking at the eastern republic after the general elections that gave an unpredictable future not only to the country. Since the next rotating presidency of Council of the EU will be Slovak, what is going to happen in the country will hit the European agenda and Europe as a whole. The centre-left Social Democracy SMER, party of the outgoing Slovak prime minister Robert Fico, will be probably not in the position of forming a government due to a lack of clear majority in the Parliament and the rise of right-wing parties. SMER remained the first party in the country, but it could be not enough to rule the country itself. There is the risk of a national political impasse, which could affect the political activity at European level, where strong commitment and great coordination are required (and hoped, considering the hot dossier on the table) together with a pro-European spirit. This is something Slovakia will be never able to offer. Fico himself, a socialist, announced to appeal the European Court of Justice against the decision of a binding relocation mechanism of migrants, refusing any idea of quotas imposed by Brussels. Fico's next partners won't be more light in their political position, since the SMER leader could share the government with euroskeptics.
Fico has already ruled out the possibility of searching political deal with the far-right People's Party – Our Slovakia. This a nationalist, anti-immigration and euroskeptic movement able to get 8% of votes and a total of 14 seats in the Parliament, where the minimum majority is 76 seat. Fico only has 49, and nobody can grant the 26 missing seats. Freedom and Solidarity (SAS), the second biggest party in Slovak after latest election, got 21 seats. Fico is forced to negotiate with them, less pro-European than SMER. In Brussels and Strasbourg live in the family of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the centre-right political group led by British Tories. So, we talk about another real euroskeptic party. But this alliance between SMER and SAS is seen as a possible scenario. The coalition government would be completed by the centre-right Ordinary People Party, sitting in Europe with ECR group. A broad, multi-party coalition of this nature is an alternative even if seen as fragile, with doubts over its ability to secure the parliament’s confidence vote
Any way current prime minister Robert Fico will have no a easy life in trying forming a new government, given that most centre-right parties have rejected a potential coalition with SMER. First attempts to get a majority will be for Fico. Then, in case of failure, will be the turn of SAS leader Richard Sulík. That would mean wasting time. There those who believe that considering Slovakia government formation process, the possibility of a caretaker government with limited decision-making ability, lasting into the rotating presidency of the EU, is gaining prominence. The point is there nothing for granted yet. It could be possible a Slovakia with no government as it was for Belgium in 2010, or a government with the rotating presidency with political turmoil. Again, Europe could have for the first time in history, an anti-European rotating presidency, in case far-right party will form a government. Then, migration agenda and EU integrity will be at stake.
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