Turkey tempted to redesign the global order leaving the Western block for the Eastern one
by Emanuele Bonini
Turkey watches more and more east. After decades invested to find a place in the European block, it is time to reconsider policies and abandon the unfruitful relationship with the Western block. In practical terms the republic led by Recep Tayipp Erdogan got the only benefit in joining the NATO, since on the EU side never happened and nothing is supposed to happen. The accession process is still pending, and the European Parliament has announced the intention of freezing the negotiations. Turkey is now considering to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (also known as Shanghai Pact), the Eurasian political, economic, and military organisation founded in 1996 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and joined by Uzbekistan in 2001. It means saying farewell to Europe and write a new chapter of the geopolitical order, considering also that the two nuclear powers India and Pakistan already applied for the membership on June this year .
The European veto to the EU membership
In order to become a member of the European Union the unanimous consensus of the Member States is required. After that it the European Parliament called to express an opinion through a vote. The European Parliament decides on enlargement and the two biggest groups - the EPP and the S&D - both decided the negotiations should be frozen in light of the breaches of the rule of law followed by the attempted coup in Turkey. Erdogan realized the free-visa regime will be never granted, as well as he understood there will be never any improvement in the negotiations. His country got less than expected, so he decided to change alliances. Erdogan knows that a part of the population wanted to join the EU. The fact he cannot guarantee it any longer put pressure on his leadership. He said he might hold a referendum, but it could be a dangerous tool in case of electoral defeat. He knows he could be forced to keep negotiating and he hopes to put pressure on Europe.
Geopolitics
«Turkey must feel at ease. It mustn't say "for me it's the European Union at all costs". That's my view», Erdogan was quoted by the Hurriyet newspaper. The Turkish alternative to the EU could be the block of countries formed by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, revealed Erdogan. «Why shouldn't Turkey be in the Shanghai Pact?» Becoming part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) would mean reshape the geopolitical order. In such a scenario Turkey would quit the Western block to join the Eastern one and superpowers such as Russia and China could count on Turkey, the second biggest NATO member. That would be a problem for Europe, of course.
The EU would watch its actual partner going away, with all the implications. The first one is political: joining Russia and China could be a non-returning point, wasting decades of political efforts to try to attract the country towards the west. The second implication would be strategical: by changing alliances even security would change. Europe should start preparing new defence strategy as soon as possible. The third implication would be energetic: Erdogan was already discussing with Putin the possibility of connecting Russia to the southern corridor allowing the construction of a pipeline entering at the border with Greece. A new alliance could relaunch these talks. In this scenario the pipeline thought to bypass the monopoly of Russian suppliers would be over, and Europe would continue to depend on Russian gas.
NATO
The president elected of the United States repeated that Europe have to guarantee its security by itself. In case Turkey shifts to other kind of alliances it is reasonable to imagine a change in Donald Trump's approach. The latter said he could rethink the US engagement in NATO and in defence cooperation but in case of a Turkish SCO membership, the United States will work to keep the balance amongst the superpowers. Europe is too divided and too weak to act alone, and the United States have no interests in leaving Europe alone. Of course, the risk of a new era like the one of the Cold war - with Europe pushed between two blocks - can be a concrete reality.
Migration
The European Union and Turkey reached and agreement on migration. Turkish government committed to cooperate with Europe in dealing with the refugee crisis. A change of politics could bring Turkey to use this deal as a put even more pressure on the EU. Europe could be basically blackmailed: no concessions in accession, no cooperation on migration. Speeding up the negotiation is one of the element of the EU-Turkey deal, whose destiny is now uncertain.
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| The Shanghai Pact (Click to enlarge) |
Turkey watches more and more east. After decades invested to find a place in the European block, it is time to reconsider policies and abandon the unfruitful relationship with the Western block. In practical terms the republic led by Recep Tayipp Erdogan got the only benefit in joining the NATO, since on the EU side never happened and nothing is supposed to happen. The accession process is still pending, and the European Parliament has announced the intention of freezing the negotiations. Turkey is now considering to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (also known as Shanghai Pact), the Eurasian political, economic, and military organisation founded in 1996 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and joined by Uzbekistan in 2001. It means saying farewell to Europe and write a new chapter of the geopolitical order, considering also that the two nuclear powers India and Pakistan already applied for the membership on June this year .
The European veto to the EU membership
In order to become a member of the European Union the unanimous consensus of the Member States is required. After that it the European Parliament called to express an opinion through a vote. The European Parliament decides on enlargement and the two biggest groups - the EPP and the S&D - both decided the negotiations should be frozen in light of the breaches of the rule of law followed by the attempted coup in Turkey. Erdogan realized the free-visa regime will be never granted, as well as he understood there will be never any improvement in the negotiations. His country got less than expected, so he decided to change alliances. Erdogan knows that a part of the population wanted to join the EU. The fact he cannot guarantee it any longer put pressure on his leadership. He said he might hold a referendum, but it could be a dangerous tool in case of electoral defeat. He knows he could be forced to keep negotiating and he hopes to put pressure on Europe.
Geopolitics
«Turkey must feel at ease. It mustn't say "for me it's the European Union at all costs". That's my view», Erdogan was quoted by the Hurriyet newspaper. The Turkish alternative to the EU could be the block of countries formed by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, revealed Erdogan. «Why shouldn't Turkey be in the Shanghai Pact?» Becoming part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) would mean reshape the geopolitical order. In such a scenario Turkey would quit the Western block to join the Eastern one and superpowers such as Russia and China could count on Turkey, the second biggest NATO member. That would be a problem for Europe, of course.
The EU would watch its actual partner going away, with all the implications. The first one is political: joining Russia and China could be a non-returning point, wasting decades of political efforts to try to attract the country towards the west. The second implication would be strategical: by changing alliances even security would change. Europe should start preparing new defence strategy as soon as possible. The third implication would be energetic: Erdogan was already discussing with Putin the possibility of connecting Russia to the southern corridor allowing the construction of a pipeline entering at the border with Greece. A new alliance could relaunch these talks. In this scenario the pipeline thought to bypass the monopoly of Russian suppliers would be over, and Europe would continue to depend on Russian gas.
NATO
The president elected of the United States repeated that Europe have to guarantee its security by itself. In case Turkey shifts to other kind of alliances it is reasonable to imagine a change in Donald Trump's approach. The latter said he could rethink the US engagement in NATO and in defence cooperation but in case of a Turkish SCO membership, the United States will work to keep the balance amongst the superpowers. Europe is too divided and too weak to act alone, and the United States have no interests in leaving Europe alone. Of course, the risk of a new era like the one of the Cold war - with Europe pushed between two blocks - can be a concrete reality.
Migration
The European Union and Turkey reached and agreement on migration. Turkish government committed to cooperate with Europe in dealing with the refugee crisis. A change of politics could bring Turkey to use this deal as a put even more pressure on the EU. Europe could be basically blackmailed: no concessions in accession, no cooperation on migration. Speeding up the negotiation is one of the element of the EU-Turkey deal, whose destiny is now uncertain.
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