Downing Street in search of a strategy and a meaning of leaving, according to the London School of Economics
by Emanuele Bonini
Everything will start in March 2017, or so it should. All the rest is nothing but an activity covered by mystery. Call it work in progress if you wish, but the substance will not change at all. Six months after the UK referendum which saw British people vote for leaving the EU, Brexit still remains a leap in the dark, according to the London School of Economics (LSE). On the occasion of the event «Britain and Europe: toward Brexit?» organized in Brussels the prestigious university put in light the great difficulties of the British administration in dealing with the practical consequences of the outcome of the referendum. According to the academic world there are at least six big issues to be addressed by Theresa May's government, and none of them still has an answer after six months.
No strategy. Julia Black, the Pro Director for Research at LSE, and Robert Saunders, associate professor responsible for EU-UK relations, admitted that after six months in London they still have not idea of what to do. «The previous government had no contingency plan» in case of a Brexit vote. David Cameron was basically betting everything in what he thought could happen but finally it didn't come out. Theresa May, current prime minister of the Unidet Kingdom, «will have not only the responsibility of negotiating Brexit, she will also have the even bigger duty of redefining the entire British strategy with the rest of the world».
No meaning for Brexit. Perhaps the main biggest issue. «If it is clear what citizens voted against, it is unclear on the contrary in favour of what citizens expressed themselves», pointed out the two academicals. What does Brexit mean, in practice? That is the question the British government have to answer in order to understand what to ask when time of reshaping ties with all the other 31 Countries (the 27 EU Member States plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) will come. Does Brexit mean more immigration? Less immigration? Just the participation to some targeted EU programmes? And which ones? That's the real rebus for Britain.
Identity crisis. «If we look at who had considered what, we see that Brexit represents a collapse of democracy», stressed Julia Black e Robert Saunders. «The government recommended to vote for remain, all the political parties recommended to vote in favour of staying with the only exception of UKIP. With their vote, citizens expressed a non-confidence vote for the entire political class». That poses further challenges for the countries, notably «what kind of democracy will rise: this is the biggest political story of next decade for Britain».
A symbolic government. Theresa May was forced to set up a government in line with the expectations of British people in order to «don't feed people's frustrations». The choice of the key ministers was not casual, underlined the LSE. Boris Johnson (Foreign Affairs) has been a key player in leaving campaign, Liam Fox (Trade) has a great experience in international trade, and this means he can be useful once the negotiations will be started. Furthermore, Davide Davis (Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union) has been already minister for the European Affairs in the 90's. In all these cases nominations are «symbolic», and they have been made as «guarantee for voters with the only purpose of reassuring them» their will is going to be respected. According to the London School of Economics the truth is that Theresa May has first of all the duty of «reunite the country», so her attentions will be above all for the domestic affairs. This could be a risk in the perspective of negotiations.
Uncertain time frame. The House of Commons passed Theresa May's timeline for the activation of the process that will lead to Brexit. Formal notification is expected in March 2017, but it doesn't mean that negotiations will begin starting from that precise moment. Apparently Theresa May's intentions would be of waiting for the French presidential elections (April-May) and the German federal elections (autumn) in order to gain some time. Moreover the British Parliament is formed by MEPs coming from constituencies where citizens voted for Brexit, and the same MEPs can't act against the popular will. In practice by approving Theresa May's timeline the House of Commons basically voted «on the principle» of leaving.
Local issue. England and Wales opted-out, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar opted-in. Voters of England and Wales chose Brexit, voters of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar chose the EU. The British government has intention of taking into account all that, trying to negotiate a sort of «special status» in favour of those who voted to remain. Something not easy to be achieved and impossible to be taken for granted, right now.
Everything will start in March 2017, or so it should. All the rest is nothing but an activity covered by mystery. Call it work in progress if you wish, but the substance will not change at all. Six months after the UK referendum which saw British people vote for leaving the EU, Brexit still remains a leap in the dark, according to the London School of Economics (LSE). On the occasion of the event «Britain and Europe: toward Brexit?» organized in Brussels the prestigious university put in light the great difficulties of the British administration in dealing with the practical consequences of the outcome of the referendum. According to the academic world there are at least six big issues to be addressed by Theresa May's government, and none of them still has an answer after six months.
No strategy. Julia Black, the Pro Director for Research at LSE, and Robert Saunders, associate professor responsible for EU-UK relations, admitted that after six months in London they still have not idea of what to do. «The previous government had no contingency plan» in case of a Brexit vote. David Cameron was basically betting everything in what he thought could happen but finally it didn't come out. Theresa May, current prime minister of the Unidet Kingdom, «will have not only the responsibility of negotiating Brexit, she will also have the even bigger duty of redefining the entire British strategy with the rest of the world».
No meaning for Brexit. Perhaps the main biggest issue. «If it is clear what citizens voted against, it is unclear on the contrary in favour of what citizens expressed themselves», pointed out the two academicals. What does Brexit mean, in practice? That is the question the British government have to answer in order to understand what to ask when time of reshaping ties with all the other 31 Countries (the 27 EU Member States plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) will come. Does Brexit mean more immigration? Less immigration? Just the participation to some targeted EU programmes? And which ones? That's the real rebus for Britain.
Identity crisis. «If we look at who had considered what, we see that Brexit represents a collapse of democracy», stressed Julia Black e Robert Saunders. «The government recommended to vote for remain, all the political parties recommended to vote in favour of staying with the only exception of UKIP. With their vote, citizens expressed a non-confidence vote for the entire political class». That poses further challenges for the countries, notably «what kind of democracy will rise: this is the biggest political story of next decade for Britain».
A symbolic government. Theresa May was forced to set up a government in line with the expectations of British people in order to «don't feed people's frustrations». The choice of the key ministers was not casual, underlined the LSE. Boris Johnson (Foreign Affairs) has been a key player in leaving campaign, Liam Fox (Trade) has a great experience in international trade, and this means he can be useful once the negotiations will be started. Furthermore, Davide Davis (Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union) has been already minister for the European Affairs in the 90's. In all these cases nominations are «symbolic», and they have been made as «guarantee for voters with the only purpose of reassuring them» their will is going to be respected. According to the London School of Economics the truth is that Theresa May has first of all the duty of «reunite the country», so her attentions will be above all for the domestic affairs. This could be a risk in the perspective of negotiations.
Uncertain time frame. The House of Commons passed Theresa May's timeline for the activation of the process that will lead to Brexit. Formal notification is expected in March 2017, but it doesn't mean that negotiations will begin starting from that precise moment. Apparently Theresa May's intentions would be of waiting for the French presidential elections (April-May) and the German federal elections (autumn) in order to gain some time. Moreover the British Parliament is formed by MEPs coming from constituencies where citizens voted for Brexit, and the same MEPs can't act against the popular will. In practice by approving Theresa May's timeline the House of Commons basically voted «on the principle» of leaving.
Local issue. England and Wales opted-out, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar opted-in. Voters of England and Wales chose Brexit, voters of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar chose the EU. The British government has intention of taking into account all that, trying to negotiate a sort of «special status» in favour of those who voted to remain. Something not easy to be achieved and impossible to be taken for granted, right now.
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