According to the 2017 edition of the European Commission's ESDE review extra-EU people are key to solve the issue of the economic demographic decline
by Emanuele Bonini
Intolerance can't be the answer, fences can't be the political agenda. EU countries need migrants more than ever to address the demographic challenge and its future implication, a study from the European Commission revealed today. Without people coming Europe will collapse, it basically says. Europeans are getting older, and the active population in the labour market is projected to shrink by 0.3% every year with all the consequences. Nowadays there are four working-age people per pensioner, in 2060 they will be just two. «No further migration would exacerbate the demographic challenge», states the document. «Without any further net migration into the EU from now on, the decline of the working-age population would be much stronger» than foreseen.
The 2017 Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) review offers two different scenarios, by which in 2040 the the active EU population could decline to 247 million people or even to 210 million people. With less active people available and more pensions to pay, future poses critical challenges for the 27+1 EU member States. The only possibility at disposal to host migrants and integrated them into the social and labour environment. «Higher net immigration would allow growth in the working age population to resume in the medium term», according to the 268 pages report. In time of fence-building, it appears hard to see national governments allowing asylum seeker applicants come and stay. Decision makers should therefore revise their immigration policies.
Europeans have not so much options. In order to address the problem they already are facing fertility can be increased. It would make a contribution towards easing the pressure sustainably. However, even assuming a strong increase in fertility starting now, its positive effect would not materialise before the mid-2030s. Option number two is higher migration. In such a case the migrants flow would have an immediate effect on potential labour supply. Even if it is unlikely to keep employment growth from slowing down, it will enable it to remain positive «if» combined with successful integration policies. This is the key condition in order to success. «Efficient immigration management can make a difference to the size of the working-age population in the medium to long run».
Everything lies to the political world, and the report from the European Commission made it clear. This was not a clarification like another, since the EU body is more and more the scapegoat of all the 28 governments of the Member States. «Policy responses will be needed», that's what the European Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs, Skills and Labour Mobility, Marianne Thyssen, said by presenting the document. The problem is when it comes to migration people get scared and politicians use to listen to the general mood. Today report showed once again how intolerance can't be the answer.
Intolerance can't be the answer, fences can't be the political agenda. EU countries need migrants more than ever to address the demographic challenge and its future implication, a study from the European Commission revealed today. Without people coming Europe will collapse, it basically says. Europeans are getting older, and the active population in the labour market is projected to shrink by 0.3% every year with all the consequences. Nowadays there are four working-age people per pensioner, in 2060 they will be just two. «No further migration would exacerbate the demographic challenge», states the document. «Without any further net migration into the EU from now on, the decline of the working-age population would be much stronger» than foreseen.
The 2017 Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) review offers two different scenarios, by which in 2040 the the active EU population could decline to 247 million people or even to 210 million people. With less active people available and more pensions to pay, future poses critical challenges for the 27+1 EU member States. The only possibility at disposal to host migrants and integrated them into the social and labour environment. «Higher net immigration would allow growth in the working age population to resume in the medium term», according to the 268 pages report. In time of fence-building, it appears hard to see national governments allowing asylum seeker applicants come and stay. Decision makers should therefore revise their immigration policies.
Europeans have not so much options. In order to address the problem they already are facing fertility can be increased. It would make a contribution towards easing the pressure sustainably. However, even assuming a strong increase in fertility starting now, its positive effect would not materialise before the mid-2030s. Option number two is higher migration. In such a case the migrants flow would have an immediate effect on potential labour supply. Even if it is unlikely to keep employment growth from slowing down, it will enable it to remain positive «if» combined with successful integration policies. This is the key condition in order to success. «Efficient immigration management can make a difference to the size of the working-age population in the medium to long run».
Everything lies to the political world, and the report from the European Commission made it clear. This was not a clarification like another, since the EU body is more and more the scapegoat of all the 28 governments of the Member States. «Policy responses will be needed», that's what the European Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs, Skills and Labour Mobility, Marianne Thyssen, said by presenting the document. The problem is when it comes to migration people get scared and politicians use to listen to the general mood. Today report showed once again how intolerance can't be the answer.
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