Tuesday, 11 July 2017

«No EU-UK flights after Brexit», Ryanair chief warns

Air carriers can't wait the end of negotiations, scheduled for March 2019. Connections to be disrupted already in September 2018, with British government considered as no problem-solver

by Emanuele Bonini

Brexit «will bring chaos for aviation», with no EU-UK air connections of any kind after March 2019, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned today. Although the conditions for exiting the European Union has to be found the 29th of March of that year at the latest, «for carriers the deadline is September-October 2018, when flights will be abolished», he said in a public hearing held in Brussels. «The aviation sector won't wait» so long, and clear conditions have to be in place before the scheduled roadmap in order to allow companies to operate. Both technical and praticals reason require the commercial environment to be clearly defined and predictable. Slots have to be resersed in advance, but in order to ask for them it is necessary to know whether operating flights is possible. So, be ready for the worst. «There is the perspective of not having EU-UK flights in April, 2019. With no deals, flights will be deleted, as the 2019 summer holidays will»

The major concern for the Irish carrier is the uncapability of the British government to find the way out. «British have no idea of they are doing, have no plans, and have no idea what the want» for the future, O'Leary criticised. With these premises it has not a surprise if the touristic sector is in allarm. TUI Group, the world's number one tourism business, has commissioned a study with the aim of investigating the possibile side effects of Brexit. In case of EU-UK flights black-out the EU27 tourism industry stands to lose some €21 billion in business, warned Ralf Pastleitner, Director International Public Policy, Group Corporate & External Affairs of TUI Group. GDP could shrink of 2.8% in Malta, and of 0,5% in Spain, just to give an example. The fact that such a study has been tabled is the proof that concerns are there, are real and the business world is working in order to be ready to address all the possible scenarios, included the worst ones.

Acting on time is crucial more than ever. As the TUI Group representative explained, tourism business start planning the commercial policy at least one year in advance. All the players are aware of the potential Brexit spillovers over the aviation sector. IAG, the airlines association including British Airlines, called for immediate answers, since «aviation need certainty before, not after» the end of Brexit negotiations, IAG CEO Willie Walsh stressed in the course of the public hearing. Find a solution will be not an easy task. Lufthansa recalled the importance of give all the same rules, and threatened vetos in case of softer conditions for the United Kingdom in the post-Brexit era. Thus, or the UK fully accept the rules behind the functioning of the aviation single market, or there will be no (air) space for the future extra-EU country. Such a warning is in contrast with the need of not wasting time, so troubles appear to be real.

Transport, tourism, politics, and list is not finished yet. Brexit will have impact on research and industry, too. Airbus civil aircraft are made by assembling components from different EU countries. One of them is the United Kingdom. Wings for all the flying machines are produced in Wales. What will happen with Brexit for a group generating €66 billion per year? Nobody knows, basically. «We want to keep be optimist», said Nathalie Errard, the EU and Nato affairs Airbus Senior Vice President. Can they? That is the question. Answer is the problem.


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