Europe sliding back to WWII pre-war context

Weak democracy and strong nationalism. Traditional forces fighting for the Status Quo, new powers in favour of radical change. And conservatives derailing to more radical positions

by Emanuele Bonini

Forget about the idea of the United States of Europe, and forget about the European Union as it has been so far. There will be no steps forward. On the contrary, on the horizon lies the status quo, at the best. Democracy is experiencing one of its worse existential crisis since the period which generated the premises for what has been know as the second world war, and the today context seems to be not so different from what already was once.
Traditional political forces become weaker and weaker day by day, and the only way they have (or they think to have) to survive is to shift to more radical positions in order to circumscribe extremisms coming from all across the continent. There’s an ongoing self-defensive run based on the assumption by which subtracting argumentations to the populists can save what has been achieved. But this is a tricky experiment. Brexit is there to recall what can happen when a ruling party starts to play the same game of anti-system forces.

Netherlands made clear there is enough EU
Looking at what the prime minister of the Netherlands stated last week during the plenary session of the European Parliament, it becames clear that the time for a further integration is over. «I believe the future of Europe should essentially be about the original promise of Europe, the promise of sovereign Member States working together to help each other to achieve greater prosperity, stability and security». Mark Rutte has no intention of making Europe a federation. A confederation as it is – or, well, as it was in its origins – must be the path to follow. This is a pure conservative vision which means no evolution. «The debate on the future of Europe is not about more or less Europe, but about what the added value of Eu can be». Here we have a genuine political slang showing how EU be too much powerful.

Quotes

«EU is like a giraffe, an animal difficult to define but easy to recognize».
Mark Rutte, prime minister of the Netherlands (Strasbourgs, 13th of June, 2018)

EU citizens ready to reject the establishment

Next European elections will take place on May, 2019. According to the latest Eurobarometer survey, 56% of voters believe new parties and movement can bring real change

 by Emanuele Bonini

The European Union as it has been till now seems doomed to become a memory of the time that was. If figures are going to be confirmed by vote, the next European Parliament will be in majority formed by anti-system MEPs. The majority of the European is ready to bet on the anti-establishment politcal forces, according to the latest Eurobarometer survey.

Marine Le Pen’s Front National, Geert Wilders’ Pvv, Matteo Salvini’s Northern League, Luigi di Maio’s 5 Star Movements… All these parties are considered as the real alternative to the non-proper functioning of the European Union.

According to the survey, more than the majority of the Europeans believe new political parties can better change and shape Europe. That’s true for the 52% of the people living the Eurozone and for the 56% of those in the non-single currency zone of the EU. Overall, the 56% of the asked people is of the idea that «We need a real change and this is what these parties and movements can bring», with Italy – one of the EU founder Member States – with the most anti-establishment sentiment recorded among all the (currently) 28 Countries (71%).

FACT SHEET/ What the European Commission does

(click on picture to enlarge)

The European Commission's four leading-roles:

aaaaaaaaaaaaRight of initiative - to submit new legislative acts and policies; 

aaaaaaaaaaaaExecutive power - to manage EU policies and single budget;

aaaaaaaaaaaaGuardian of the Treaties - to make the EU law applied;

aaaaaaaaaaaaGlobal dimension - to guarantee the EU external representation

«Nobody knows the real impact of AI on jobs»

EU commissioner Jyrky Kataine recognised that automation and robotics represent an opportunity posing some risks. “The Commission has a limited role” to play. Everything is up to Member States, but training and education cost

by Emanuele Bonini for eunews

Without any doubt an opportunity, for sure a pitfalls-rich change. Certainties are there, incognita don’t lack. The European Commission cannot do a lot, the major part of the job will be up to the Member States, of course if they will be able to understand the ongoing evolving times and act on time. Here’s how the change over from the traditional labour market to the digital and technological one turns into a true political rebus, a brain teaser causing a head break for many in absence of proper measures aimed to adapt the society to a change as quick as unpredictable.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) will have consequences on society. “According to the latest OECD estimates, around 35%-40% of job places will be replaced, but the truth is nobody knows which will be the real impact”, EU commissioner Jyrki Katainen admitted today. The Finnish member of the team Juncker is in charge of Growth and investments, but he's is also responsible for jobs and competitivness. Addressing the audience of the Google and Debating Europe conference on the ‘Future of work’, Katainen made clear how the future of labour market is more unpredictable than ever.

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Indirect democracy means no power to all

The Second Chamber of the EU General Court made clear that the Citizens’ initiative cannot impose anything to the legislative-elected bodies

by Emanuele Bonini

Direct democracy is not for ever, and is not for everything. Especially in context of indirect democracy. The latter is based on representative bodies such as Parliaments, meaning that these bodies keep their supremacy, their own right to decide. Do the people decide? Yes and not. They decide who will decide on their behalf. With such rules of the game, people's Institutions elected by people «are the law» and always retain discretionary power as regards the action to be taken. So ruled today the Second Chamber of the General Court of the European Union, making clear that European citizens’ initiative (ECI) cannot replace the law-making power of the European Commission.

ECI is a EU mechanism aimed at increasing direct democracy by allowing active participation of EU citizens. Citizens’ initiative is nothing but the possibility of submitting to the European Commission any appropriate proposal on matters where citizens consider that a legal act of the Union is required. In order to have a proposal notified, at least one million eligible signatories coming from at least one quarter of all Member States are required.

German unemployed the first in EU for poverty risk

Be careful to keep the job place, or the situation won't be easy at all. Eurostat unveiled the fake news of a country where everything is OK

by Emanuele Bonini

Germany is the strongest European economy and the country is consired a winning model for its performances in all sectors. Public finances are sound, export is robust and the unemployment rate is the third lowest of the entire European Union. Yet data suggest that something is wrong with Germany: its share of people at risk of monetary poverty is the highest of Europe. Latest Eurostat figures on unemployment confirmed the virtuous trend of the norther country, with the not working citizens fallen down to 3,6% in January 2018 compared to 3,9% in the same month of 2017. There are actually some 1,547,000 people out of the labour market, 131,000 less that the first month of the previous year. According to the same EU institute of statistics, at the end of 2016 in Germany the 70.8% of unemployed persons was at risk of poverty. This is the highest European rate, meaning first of all that in Germany there are about more than 1,1 million people with a vulnerability status (in December 2017 the total amount reached the threshold of 1,188,732 persons, in relation to the unemployment rate of that period). In absolute number the situation is less negative than other country. In Italy, for instance, at the end of 2016 there were 1,427,380 unemployed persons was at risk of poverty (or 46% of total unemployed population). In Spain that category of people counted for 2,064,426 individuals (49,4%).

Italy's problem is not Europe, is Italy itself

The Country suffers the European decisions because of its political non weight in the EU. Instead of autocriticism national political class fed euroscepticism

by Emanuele Bonini

If 64% of EU citizens believe in the benefits of being part of the Europen Union, in Italy only 39% of the national population does, marking the lowest rate in Europe. Italy has thus become the most eurosceptic country among the 28 (soon 27) Member States. The change of mind of one the founders of the today European Union is something not be underestimated. It is not only the consequent result of never explained what the EU represent, but the lack of political engagement. The truth is Italy chose not to be part of the Brussels decision process. In the European Union of the Member States, this is certainly an epic fail. But here are all the Italian responsibilities. During last two decades the Italian government have merely thought to domestic affairs leaving to the other countries the duty of taking decisions. A totally absent Italy around the table, togheter with the lies told internally, contributed to feed an always growing euroscepticism in the Italian peninsula.

The uncapability of the Italian political class didn't make possible for the country to be an active player of the European debate. The case of Fiscal compact well shows how Italians live in a parallel dimension. Everybody, from left to right, complain about what is by definition an «inter-governmental» agreement. Inter-governmental means that decisions like the ones foreseen by such a compact were taken by national governments, not by «Europe». More and more in Italy the «blame and complain» game has been played against Europe. The same Matteo Renzi, who always claims to be a true committed pro-European, chose to talk against the European Union in his speeches. Instead of clearlt recall that decision are taken by Member States, he offered the idea of a country continously oppressed by «Europe». Unfortunately, a non-federal Europe cannot impose nothing but what its members agree among themselves. The European Commission only has the power of proposing legislations, and on the basis of these proposals national governments decide what to do.

Safe web and preventive censorship, a thin red line

Social media use to intervene against contents «allegded to be infringing,without prior notice», at their sole discretion. A controversial regime applied in name of proper use and security

by Emanuele Bonini (English version of my Eunews article)

Copyright infringements, incitement to racial or ethnic hatred, cheesecake picture or even porn content, violence. There are several cases of back out and removal of what is posted on-line. Such activities are carried out by the social media themselves, but in most of cases the reporting of inadequate posts and messages is left to the internet users. But who can really say what is right and what is wrong? diversity of opinions and different degree of susceptibility, risk to trigger a short-circuit in the network made by ‘lightly’ complaints with immediate consequences. Twitter, Blogger (the Google blog platform), Facebook and Istagram all have more or less the same conditions and terms of use (ToU) of their services. There is of course, as it’s right it is, a control of surfers. Nevertheless this policy control poses a certain question marks on the way it is applied, since in name of a ‘clean’ and safe web the risk of a real preventive censorship is there.

Presumption of guilt, preventive and discretionary removal
The network is vast, and the number of users – especially those of certain social media – virtually boundless. Monitoring everything that is written is not an easy task. And then the principle of preventive intervention applies. Blogger offers an example. The team can send at any time e-mails like the following:

 

«Blogger has been notified, according to the terms of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), that certain content in your blog is alleged to infringe upon the copyrights of others. As a result, we have reset the post(s) to "draft" status. (If we did not do so, we would be subject to a claim of copyright infringement, regardless of its merits). If you believe that you have the rights to post the content at issue here, you can file a counter-claim».

The DMCA is a US copyright law that provides guidelines for online service provider liability in case of copyright infringement. What has to be noticed is that intervetions are made on the basis of possible infringement. Is a post ‘alleged to infringe’ the rules or in them violation? There is a huge difference between having an illegal situation or a situation thought to be illegal. Anyway, in case of doubt the giants of the internet carry out preventive censorship.
Having a look to the Twitter ToU, it is possible to read that «We reserve the right to remove Content alleged to be infringing without prior notice, at our sole discretion, and without liability to you». In return of being ‘responsibilities-free’, Twitter can basically do whatever the social media likes. Once again rules refer to contents presumed to be irregular, to be treated with immediate and not-communicated removal. The same policy applied to Facebook services. Once again, in case of a report from a rights owner claiming content on Facebook infringes their intellectual property rights, «we may need to promptly remove that content from Facebook without contacting you first. If you believe the content should not have been removed, you can follow up with them directly to try to resolve the issue». First complain, then delete. Only after try to negotiate. Instagram doesn’t act differently. «We reserve the right to modify or terminate the Service or your access to the Service for any reason, without notice, at any time, and without liability to you», states the terms of use of the photo-sharing service.